Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The average number of per-day murders per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official data. But, security specialists have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate improved national stability.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded in these months is extremely notable,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it could mask periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.